According to our estimates, as of the recession probability is
Recession Probability %. Historically, recessions are characterized by a bearish stock market, a high degree of financial frictions, and low interest rates and inflation.
The slope of the yield curve (Yield%) and the growth rate of new building permits (Permits%) are two leading indicators of where we are going to be in the business cycle next quarter. Before recessions, the yield curve usually gets flat, and its slope drops below 1 percent. At the same time, construction slows down and the growth rate of permits becomes negative.
Inflation and GDP growth equal to Inflation% and Growth%, respectively. Too high inflation (above 4 percent) as well as too low inflation and GDP growth (below 1 percent) are signs of an upcoming or ongoing economic slowdown.
Two more lagging economic indicators that measure real economic activity are the output gap (currently at Output gap%) and the unemployment rate (currently at Unemployment Rate%).
About us ▾
We are an independent group of PhD economists that use machine learning and a proprietary artificial intellegence (AI) algorithm to forecast recessions in the United States in real time. We automatically update our estimates once new data gets released and email them to our subscribers free of charge. In a simulated experiment, our model was able to predict 7 out of last 7 recessions at least three months before the official NBER announcement dates. This helps our subscribers to properly time their financial decisions and stay ahead of the market. As a source of economic data, our algorythm relies on the FRED® API but it is neither endorsed nor certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.